The Anxiety of Almost: Why Preliminary Finals Hurt More Than Grand Finals

The rugby league finals series is a high-stakes, emotional rollercoaster that captivates fans and teams alike. But one aspect often gets overlooked in the excitement of the grand final: the preliminary finals themselves. These matches determine which teams advance to the championship decider, yet they’re frequently treated as the ultimate proving ground.

Coaches and players experience intense pain when losing a preliminary final. Craig Bellamy, a highly successful coach, noted that “players can lose their edge going from a prelim to the grand final.” Even experienced teams like Melbourne’s Storm have been undone by expectation.

Preliminary finals represent the ultimate test of a team’s character. Unlike the grand final, which often pits two evenly matched teams against each other, these contests are typically one-way affairs. When a team falls just short, it can feel like they’ve let themselves down.

For players, losing a preliminary final is especially tough because they’re so close to achieving their goal. Christian Welch, a Storm player who has won and lost grand finals, said, “Having to stand on the field watching the premiership rings being handed out… you picture yourself in their position on the stage singing the team song.” The disappointment of missing out can be all-consuming.

Teams often approach preliminary finals with detachment. Grand final teams tend to be more relaxed – they’ve already secured their place in the championship decider, so what do they have to lose? However, another factor is at play: the bunker. The NRL’s video review system has been criticized for its inconsistencies and biases, but one thing is clear – it can make a huge difference in game outcomes.

An incorrect bunker ruling can lead to a try being denied, followed by an opposition score, making the team that lost the preliminary final feel robbed of victory. As we head into this weekend’s finals, consider the implications of these dynamics. Will teams be able to overcome their nerves and deliver on the big stage? Or will the pressure prove too much to handle?

The Rise of Risk-Averse Teams

Attack-focused play has become increasingly prevalent in rugby league, with coaches emphasizing the importance of risk-taking and aggressive attacking. However, this approach can sometimes backfire – especially when faced with a strong defensive unit.

Teams like Penrith have emerged as fixtures in the preliminary finals, embodying the Gen Z ethos of risk aversion. They’re not afraid to take chances and push for victory, even if it means going all out. But there’s a flip side: when these teams face adversity on the field, they can become overly reliant on luck rather than skill.

The bunker has become a crucial factor in determining outcomes, creating uncertainty that makes games feel more like lotteries. As we approach this weekend’s finals, questions abound about the state of the league. Will teams like the Dolphins – who have never before made it past the first round – be able to handle the pressure? Or will they crumble under expectation?

The Sydney crowd turnout has been a subject of much debate, with some arguing that the stadium is half full and others claiming it’s half empty. But what does this really mean for the teams on the field? Will they be buoyed by support or intimidated by silence?