China’s Actions Risk Creation of New Status Quo, Taiwan Official Says

The international community has been slow to grasp the implications of China’s gradual escalation of pressure in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters. Senior officials like Kuan Bi-ling, head of Taiwan’s Ocean Affairs Council, are sounding the alarm about the accumulation of “grey zone” activities – a term coined to describe actions short of outright conflict.

China’s military incursions into Taiwanese airspace and waters have become routine, with regular Coast Guard patrols off Taiwan’s east coast further antagonizing the island government. The international community may label each incident as not yet a crisis, but repeated judgments of this kind can lead to a gradual acceptance of what should never be regarded as normal.

The stakes are high for more than just Taiwan or China. Increased pressure in the South China Sea could lead to shipping routes being adjusted, insurance companies recalculating risk, and personnel on the frontlines facing greater pressure. The ripple effects could spread far beyond the region, impacting global trade and economic stability.

Historically, hybrid warfare tactics have employed the concept of a “grey zone,” where nations seek to avoid direct confrontation while exerting influence over a target territory or population. China’s actions in Taiwan Strait and South China Sea appear calibrated to fall within this grey area, exploiting ambiguity to further its interests.

China views democratically governed Taiwan as an integral part of its own territory, not an independent nation with the right to self-determination. This stance has created significant tensions between Beijing and Taipei, which are unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.

The international community’s hesitance to label China’s actions as overt aggression may stem from a desire to avoid exacerbating these tensions. However, Kuan’s warning should serve as a wake-up call for policymakers around the world. By accepting incremental escalation as a “new normal,” we risk ceding control over our shared maritime domain and emboldening nations like China to pursue more aggressive actions in the future.

Last month’s joint statement from the United States, Britain, France, and Germany expressing concern about new Chinese Coast Guard patrols off Taiwan’s east coast has put the international community on high alert. However, words alone may not be enough to deter China’s creeping aggression.

For Taiwan, Japan, and other nations in the region, a continued erosion of sovereignty and influence in the face of an increasingly assertive China is clear. The stakes are high, and the international community must recognize that the creation of a new status quo through “grey zone” activities can have far-reaching consequences.

We may be witnessing a new era of maritime politics, one characterized by subtle but relentless pressure from major powers seeking to expand their influence at the expense of smaller nations. If Kuan’s warnings are ignored or dismissed as alarmist, we risk discovering too late that no decisive war ever occurred on any particular day – yet the original status quo is gone forever.

China’s actions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea pose a clear challenge to international norms of territorial sovereignty and maritime law. It is imperative that policymakers around the world take heed of Kuan’s warning, recognizing the dangers of accepting incremental escalation as a “new normal.” The time for complacency has long passed; it is now up to us to shape the new status quo in our favor before it’s too late.